In one passage that caught my attention Rhodri muses ”What are the limits to which left-of-centre parties can go?”.  He said: 

“It’s going to be very much put to the test over the next few years now in this period of taxation restructuring which we are having to have in Britain because North Sea oil revenue is going out. We’re going to have to start making things again and encourage capital and enterprise to make up the trade gap because we haven’t got North Sea oil and gas any more.

“We’ve got a 30-year run of oil and gas, then it’s gone. There’s a massive change in the economy needed now, so you have to persuade people with the capital to use the capital or borrow capital to run those businesses, and run those businesses to believe that Wales is a very good place to run those businesses”.

Rhodri always has been an astute analyst of the economic scene.  He is right to identify the enormous trade gap which is already beginning to emerge through the decline of the North Sea oil field.  The ongoing implications for the balance of payments will be profound. 

But there seems to me to be a piece missing from the analysis. Of course we need to start manufacturing things again, but if North Sea Oil is running out this is likely to be part of a piece.  It is not just revenues that will dry up.  The price of the remaining oil from other parts of the world (often unstable regimes) will inevitably rise.  And an economy based on traditional manufacturing will struggle.

Rhodri Morgan’s solution – according to Martin Shipton’s account -  is “You need more people like Admiral Insurance – you need half a dozen Admiral Insurances, not just one”. 

I can’t help but feel this is akin to fighting the last war.  It is not just that we need to start making more things, but we need to start putting a heavy emphasis on cleaner technologies – allied with measures to encourage people to change their behaviour and the way we consume.  We need to become less dependent on oil.

If we don’t we face a considerable threat.  If we grasp the challenge there is a considerable opportunity for Wales to lead.  But to do it we need a change of mindset.

Though the concept of fuel poverty is familiar to us  the figures are stark and shocking.  Perhaps less well known is the fact that Wales is also riddled with transport poverty.

One in four households don’t have access to a car – in communities like Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil as many as 35% of families are car-less.  But because jobs and services are often difficult to access by public transport many on low-incomes feel forced to ‘invest’ in a car.

Research shows that buying and running a car is a major cause of people getting into trouble with debts.  Those on low-wages who do have cars spend nearly a quarter of their income on the cost of motoring.   And the cost is set to rise.  The price of oil has already more than doubled since early this year and is predicted to keep on going up.  

Transport poverty in Wales will increase further if our society continues to be shaped by the idea that running a car is the same kind of ‘basic need’ as heating our homes.  Wales needs to rethink its transport priorities so that sustainable transport  options are seen as realistic and convenient for people and owning a car is no longer seen as a necessity but a lifestyle choice.

For a generation the Danish capital has prioritised investment and planning to make cycling around the area the easiest and most convineint way to get about.  Here’s what it looks like.

Are these the rantings of a fringe group, or prescient warnings?

Is our current slump one of capitalism’s regular crises or the harbinger of a collapse in our economy and society caused by over consumption?

There is a compelling logic to the analysis of Peak Oil.  Finite resources will inevitably run out and an economic system based on the assumption that this will not happen is clearly flawed.

No mainstream politician will face up to this, because people do not want to hear it.

So how should we respond?  Inevitably many will seek a technological solution which enables us to carry on living as we are – irrespective of the harmful environmental consequences.  Others see the trend as an opportunity for positive change.  Both seek to impose their worldview under the cloak of responding to a crisis.

Sadly I am as deskilled as the rest of my generation.  I can’t hunt, cook, garden or come to mention it sew.  It is a grim prospect.

But we should at least face up to it.  If is it possible to avoid it then it will only happen if we confront the possibility.  Even if only following the precautionary principle we should surely do something?

‘we will fund the creation of a Low Carbon Region … with the aim of creating the first Low Carbon region in Europe.’ (p.56)

Sounds good. Then I look up and see what is soon to be the largest open-cast coal mine in Europe.

Joined up government?

This afternoon the long-awaited National Transport Plan is put out to consultation.  And we can expect genuflections in the direction of sustainable transport, but what meaning do they have when some half of the transport budget is tied up in road schemes?

WAG will have to start cutting Welsh greenhouse gas emissions by 3% every year from 2011.  And with a quarter of our emissions coming from transport a new approach is needed.

For the first time public transport operators have joined passenger watchdogs, health groups and NGOs to press for greater priority to be given to a range of initiatives that promote green transport.

Here’s the list of demnads that command the support of this broad alliance:

• Measures to promote integrated transport, for example, multi-modal ticketing, bus / rail interchanges, Smart Cards and secure cycle parking.
• A range of ‘Smarter Choices’ measures.  For example, Travel planning, Car Clubs, Car sharing, Bus Real Time information systems, Park & Ride, showers and lockers in workplaces.
• Traffic calming and speed restraint in residential areas to encourage walking and cycling
• An extensive network of shared paths for walking and cycling (segregated from traffic)
• Congestion charging allied with extra investment in public transport
• Parking control (including low parking standards for new developments, charging, use of workplace parking levies, re-development of parking space for more productive uses);
• An extension of safe routes to schools (for example, by using traffic-calming measures near schools and by creating or improving walking and cycle routes to schools).
• Reallocation of road space towards sustainable modes of transport
• An integrated marketing strategy to target information on those who are susceptible to change the way they travel;
• Demand responsive services, including community transport, to tackle social exclusion in rural areas and other areas of transport poverty.
• A wide reaching awareness raising campaign educating the public in the techniques involved in more efficient driving, for journeys where sustainable modes of transport are not an option.

These measures to reduce car dependency should be funded by a shift away from road building.