It has been widely assumed that with the majority of ‘regional’ Union executives backing Edwina Hart their members would follow suit.  One of the more sobering images of the early part of the campaign was the welcome extended by Unite boss Andy Richards to his favoured candidate.  But far from being an uncomfortable echo of 1999 the result throws doubt on the influence that union leaders have on their members.

Carwyn Jones was on virtually level pegging with Edwina Hart among Unite members*.

Earlier this year a private opinion poll on the political affiliation of Unite members showed that just 34 per cent favoured Labour and 31 per cent the Conservatives. Now only those who pay the political levy to Labour voted in the Welsh contest, but it adds to the picture of a breaking down of the traditional political role that Unions have played.

If the Conservatives win the General Election and Labour go into opposition union leaders will want to reflect on how they use their remaining political influence, and may want to focus more on campaigning on issues rather than trying to play the role of power brokers.

*UPDATE: Wales Homehave helpfully published the results of the union section which shows that its 12% of the electoral collage vote was allocated in the following way:  

Edwina Hart 5.4755%, Carwyn Jones 5.0051%, Huw Lewis 1.5864%

Labour has struggled to develop policy in Wales.  Partly because the culture and structure of the Party has not been geared towards developing separate policy for Wales, and partly because the leading players have been engaged in Governing.  New policy has been developed in a hurried, and often shockingly casual way, in the immediate build-up to an election.

The Leadership election is forcing the Labour Party to think about new Welsh policies in the middle of the electoral cycle.  And there are encouraging signs.  

Dave Hagendyk is right to say that the ideas of Huw Lewis will feature in the next manifesto.  So too will the ideas of the other candidates.

Here are three suggestions that caught my eye which I believe deserve a place in Labour’s programme in 2011  – I’ve chosen one from each of the candidates and I’ll let you guess which candidate came up with them:

• Set up a Leadership Academy for public service leaders and managers to promote innovation and spread best practice
• “immersion placements” for students from every school in Wales in Welsh-speaking communities to develop a positive interest in Welsh as a living language.
• A co-ordinated government plan to support looked-after children, putting energies into engaging directly with children affected, reducing educational disruption, enhancing independent advocacy and providing a personal support plan for children leaving care;

Ok, these aren’t exactly radical.  But in fairness to all the candidates it is not easy to come up with proposals when the winner will be tied into an already agreed coalition programme for the next two years, and against the backdrop of painful budgets cuts.

Whoever is named Labour leader on December 1st needs to ensure that the process of gathering ideas is not restricted to the periods around elections.  It is an essential part of rebuilding the party.

He’s staying on because the budget negotiations are expected to be tricky, and the coalition could be destabilised if he went before they were complete.

But for a whole week Rhodri Morgan will be First Minister in name only and we’ll enter into a period of ‘cohabitation’.  Authority is bound to flow away from the incumbent, and no deal can be reached without the consent of the First Minister in waiting.  This is hardly a recipe for stability.

If I were Ieuan Wyn Jones I’d be looking to make the most of this potenital window of opportunity.  And as my old friend Gareth Hughes has noted, there are already trouble makers looking to exploit the handover.

So far the attention has fallen on the process of how the next Labour Assembly Leader will be chosen, and on the personalities of those who wish to lead it. 

We’ve been told about their voices too.  Edwina Hart tells us she’ll be a strong voice for Wales, and Carwyn Jones we’re told will be a voice for the whole of Wales.  No news yet on Huw Lewis’ voice, but I’m sure it’s coming.

Of course these are all relevant to the choice facing Labour Party members, but the bigger question is what they would do.

With cuts to make to public services, what will their priorities be?

Will they continue to pursue economic growth or will they seek to place a greater emphasis on quality of life?

With Labour membership falling and its social base changing, what direction will they take the Party?

These are just some of the strategic questions that need to be addressed over the next eight weeks. 

We will hear a lot about how the Unite trade union will allocate their share of the votes, and the relative support each candidate will have from Welsh MPs – and what that tells us.  And I am interested in all that.  But most people will be more interested in what the next Labour leader will do.

So here’s an invitation to each of the candidates to use this blog to set out how Wales would change under their leadership.

Ten years ago when Welsh Labour last held a leadership contest, the process for appointing the leader of the Labour Group in the Assembly was as controversial as the issues. 

Even though Rhodri Morgan has not delivered on his pledge to overhaul the election process (nor did Alun Michael deliver on his pledge to secure a seat for the Welsh Party on the ruling NEC), there have been some changes to the way the electoral college works.

Each section of the college gets a third of the votes, but the Union (affiliated organisations) section will no longer be open to the abuse of 1999 where ‘regional’ executives decided how the votes of their membership should be cast. 

This time there will be no block vote.  Unions will be have to ballot their membership and then divide their vote proportionaly according to the wishes of their membership.

Here’s how the electoral college breaks down, as I understand it:

Section 1 (AMs / MPs):

56 people

Section 2: Members –

11,000 people

Section 3 (affiliated organsiations)

Unite 100,450

Aslef 2,000

Bectu 10,000

CWU 14,000

Community 10,000

GMB 51,000

Musician’s Union 2,000

NUM S Wales 5,000

Ucatt 5,000

Unison Wales Labour Link 52,000

Usdaw 22,000

TSSA 1,000

Societies:

Fabian 1,000

Socialist Health Associations 1,000

Wales Co-op Party 10,000

Welsh Lab Students 1,000

So an individual party member vote will be worth less than 1% of an MP/AM vote.  People power!

These days his tenure is either forgotten or reviled, but his account might well mean a reappraisal of his role.  He casts Ron Davies as the devil of the piece, and blames yaboo politics for much of the atmosphere of the time.  With another change of Labour Leader in prospect, he or she would do well to reflect on the lessons learned by their predecessors.

I think not.

Even if the economy does pick up the impact on public spending over the next ten years is going to be profound.  And last time I looked at the figures on the reliance of the Welsh economy on the public sector they left an impression on me that it was kind of important.

The point doesn’t seem to have been lost on the TUC.  And clearly Brown is road testing his election strategy by painting the Tories as the slash and burn agents who will put the recovery at risk. 

But putting all that aside, let me be parochial for a moment.  The impact of the cuts are going to have far reaching consequences for the Assembly Government, and indeed the future of the Assembly.

For all the manoeuvring going on to replace Rhodri Morgan the overriding issue is how the WAG manages the huge reduction in public finances this Autumn and next following the Westminster election.   As an old sage reminded me this week, this more than anything else will determine the shape of things post-Rhodri.

As the Holtham report found, the Assembly’s finances are already under strain.  Even in times of plenty the Welsh bank account was not getting a fair share from our Treasury masters.  But it is about to get a lot worse.  “Unmanageable”, according to my friendly sage.

So what could the political fallout be? 

How will the new Labour leader navigate the massive cuts, laden down with promissory notes made to Trade Unions others made during the leadership election? 

Former Welsh Labour Press Officer Owain Jones criticises his party for putting too much responsibility on the shoulders of Rhodri Morgan.  He argues that just as Plaid Cymru established a talented leadership team from the across the party, so Labour should share the burden:

The Labour Party, as much as any organisation, can be caught up in the cult of the individual, and its component parts rarely pause to consider what they might do to contribute to good leadership. Responsibility for change needs to be pushed out to where it can most profitably flourish.

But the central control that was essential in achieving the discipline that helped Labour into Government, has now stymied its ability to develop as a party.  Owain Jones is right to stress the need for a culture of self-criticism to develop within the Labour Party, but the defensive tone evident in parts of his essay illustrate there is a long way to go before the party creates an environment which encourages ‘critical friendship’.

His experience as a party official inevitably colurs his analysis, but he makes strong points:

There is no doubt that in many seats lacklustre, tired and unimaginative local campaigns, as much the responsibility of local representatives as members, have become too common. These electoral runs are no more than displacement activity. Local parties are too reliant on a slimline party staff. In turn, perhaps our Welsh party HQ should do more to push the real work out to where it belongs – in the field. This is a difficult reality to face but a redefinition of the role of the party bureaucracy is needed. It ought to be a hub of innovation and ideas, not a centralised institution of control.

It is hard to disagree with his analysis.  After 12 years in office Labour has lost its hunger for power.  The difficult choices of Government allied with a deliberate strategy of triangulation has alienated many the Party has taken for granted.  Furthermore Labour has long lost any culture of empowerment.  Disagreement with the ‘line’ decided upon by a very small group at the centre has long been seen as ‘unhelpful’.  Perhaps that is inevitable in modern politics?

His most pointed message is aimed at the Unions.  “Vested interest [sic] is a powerful and stifling force”, he writes:

Trade unions are rarely criticised by Labour politicians in Wales. And yet, despite recent record employment and favourable legislation, they have continued to lose members and failed to sufficiently modernise. While union officials undoubtedly work hard for the causes they represent, they too must change.

He is right to warn putative leadership candidates of the dangers of cosying up to interest groups. But with a shrinking and dispersed membership and an internal electoral system which embeds the influence of ‘vested interests’, where else are the candidates to turn?

To my mind, Labour’s biggest problem is that too many in the party have not adopted to the realities of post-devolution competitive politics.  The Labour Party is no longer the dominating force in Welsh politics.  That is an unpalatable truth for those who have grown up with their party having a powerful sense of ownership of the nation’s politics.

Labour’s domination is over.  And though it is heresy to say it, I think that is a good thing.

It is in Welsh Labour’s long-term interests to face up to this stark reality and start coming to terms with the new Wales it has helped create.

Though I don’t agree with all parts of his analysis Owain Jones’ essay shows that there is a younger generation within Labour that ‘get it’.  Maybe the changing of the guard that will accompany Rhodri Morgan’s retirement will allow that generation a stronger voice. 

I remain to be convinced.