There are likely to be few dissenters when David Cameron gets round to cutting the number of MPs if he becomes PM.
The Conservative Leader has pledged to cut the size of the House of Commons by 10% as part of his initiative to reduce the cost of Government. It is of course completely unrelated to the desire to recalibrate the Parliamentary boundaries that currently disadvantage the Tories.
It is assumed that a 10% cut would reduce the size of the Welsh Parliamentary Party from 40 to 36. But as Richard Wyn Jones from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre has pointed out, this may be an incorrect assumption.
The only clear statement setting out how the change would be implemented comes from Lord Kenneth Baker. The Tory grandee introduced a Bill into the Lords in 2006 proposing that every constituency should be equalised at 76,000 electors – up from around 56,000 in Wales at present. This is said to be the working model by experts in the field.
That would mean just 29 Welsh MPs. And given that the number of Assembly seats is related to the number of MPs it would cut the number of AMs from 60 to 49, throwing the Assembly into chaos. And causing profound tensions within the main parties as politicians scrabble for seats.
Little detail has been given by the Conservatives in public about exactly how they will determine the cuts – or indeed how much money it will really save, or the exact implications for devolution.
A very different looking electoral map | WalesHome.org 12:02 pm on 26 January, 2010 Permalink
[...] AT This Is My Truth Lee Waters draws attention to something we discussed here last May, namely that the Conservatives’ proposals for [...]
Nick Webb 12:05 pm on 26 January, 2010 Permalink
I believe in Scotland when the number of MPs was reduced the link between MSPs and MPs constituencies was broken. I see that as far more likely should the number of MPs in Wales be reduced, than a cut in the number of AMs as well.
Simon Dyda 12:22 pm on 26 January, 2010 Permalink
Well the relationship between Westminster constituencies and Assembly ones would obviously not survive any cut in the number of MPs.
I would say it is interesting that the Tories haven’t gone into this kind of detail, however the last time I checked Cameron & co were swearing blind that the cut in MPs would not include Welsh ones.
So has something new happened or is this just recycled speculation?
Daran 1:02 pm on 26 January, 2010 Permalink
“I would say it is interesting that the Tories haven’t gone into this kind of detail, however the last time I checked Cameron & co were swearing blind that the cut in MPs would not include Welsh ones.”
It’ll be a UK wide assessment. In UK terms, Wales is over-represented therefore the cuts will be deeper
Simon Dyda 2:02 pm on 26 January, 2010 Permalink
“It’ll be a UK wide assessment. In UK terms, Wales is over-represented therefore the cuts will be deeper”
Yes I know but my point is that we’ve heard this before, and despite Wales being over-represented Cameron & Gillan have stated that the number of Welsh MPs would not be cut (at least not until there is a change in Cardiff Bay’s powers).
Whether excluding Welsh constituencies from such reforms is at all realistic is debatable, but have they (Cameron and Gillan) changed their tune?
Alan Trench 6:42 pm on 28 January, 2010 Permalink
There are several issues here. First, should Wales’s current over-representation at Westminster be ended at this point, after the National Assembly gets primary legislative powers (assuming it does), or later still?
Second, if there were a reduction in the number of Welsh MPs (whether to the English quota or preserving the existing differential), what should be the effect on the size of the National Assembly. Nick Webb is right to note that when the similar issue arose in Scotland the solution – after a lot of messing about – was to cut the connection between the size of the Scottish Parliament and the number of Scottish MPs.
Third, if you decouple the two, should this opportunity be taken to increase the size of the National Assembly, alter the electoral system or both?
I discussed this on Devolution Matters back in November; see http://devolutionmatters.wordpress.com/2009/11/03/the-national-assembly-for-wales-and-the-tories-plans-for-westminster/
A good election to lose? « This is my truth 8:58 pm on 20 April, 2010 Permalink
[...] I’ve heard the view expressed on the left that David Cameron’s policy of cutting the number of MPs by 10% would result in redrawn constituency boundaries that would favour the Tories and rule out a Labour [...]