With just a few months to go a General Election, all eyes – even in Wales – are on Westminster. Yet the next few months in Cardiff Bay promise to be just as interesting and decisive because the agreement that ended the impasse after the Assembly 2007 elections and which has held the Welsh Assembly Government together for over two and a half years now faces unprecedented challenges. That these challenges are emerging in the run up to the Assembly’s own elections makes them all the more worth watching.
Most obviously, Rhodri Morgan’s retirement not only brought a new First Minister but also heralded a new Cabinet, with new faces Leighton Andrews, Carl Sargeant, Huw Lewis and Lesley Griffiths all sitting alongside Plaid colleagues in government for the first time. Who knows how it’s going – there’s being surprisingly little gossip – but the dynamics and relationships within Cabinet have surely changed. New personalities bring new priorities and new ways of working.
These changes in personnel have come in the middle of one of the toughest budget cycles ever, certainly in the lifetime of the Assembly. There is nothing more likely to increase tensions more than who takes the hit on spending cuts. Whether the coalition can weather the coming storm is the major challenge which it faces in the coming year.
Add to this already heady mixture the inevitable strains of a UK general election, where parties which are pally in the corridors of power are suddenly pitching battle on the pavement, and suddenly the last two and a half years of ‘agreements’, delivery plans and deal making gets considerably less comfortable. At the end of it we also face a scenario which could, for the first time, see different parties in government and both sides of the M4.
And then there is the small matter of the referendum on the Assembly’s powers. Here too stresses and suspicions could all too quickly come to the fore in recriminations about lack of commitment or lack of realism. We’ve already seen some signs and there could be more bubbling under the surface. The trigger motion may have received unanimous support in the Assembly but it now lies in the hands of the Secretary of State for Wales to lay it before Parliament within four months. And four months puts the deadline the other side of the General Election. Who knows who will be the Secretary of State for Wales then.
With all these challenges on the near horizon, 2010 promises to be the most interesting year in Welsh politics for decades. With the first 100 days of the new First Minister’s term just one week away – on March 19th – the time is ripe to take stock of where we are, where we are going and how turbulent the journey will be.
The Bevan Foundation and Positif Politics are holding a conference which will examine all of these critical issues. For more information on the event please visit: http://www.positifpolitics.co.uk/march19.pdf
Valleysmam 11:01 am on 9 March, 2010 Permalink
Its easy – get one head honcho , cut the status of the King Pins give them shared out puts on which their pay depends and then see what occurs !
a change of personnel 4:00 pm on 9 March, 2010 Permalink
Working together would mean relinquishing control of certain areas, it something many of those those who work in Local Authority’s are adverse to and be honest what realistic chance is there of a mindset change this late in the process?
As for WAG do they have a plan B on saving the money and protecting jobs if this all falls apart, or will the failings, job losses and service cuts be covered over by the old favourite of reorganization again.
Jeff Jones 9:37 pm on 9 March, 2010 Permalink
It was doomed from the beginning I’m afraid. Given how small the savings were for authorities such as Cardiff and Newport it wasn’t surprising that they decided not to take part. Even the savings that were expected would not come on stream until at least year 7 of the project. Given the initial capital outlay required it just wasn’t worth the effort.
Collaboration and smarter procurement are great in speeches but time is rapidly running out for local government in Wales as they face a pretty grim future.
The Local government structure devised by the Tories aided and abetted by Labour MPs more worried about the reaction of GMC members than good governance was never fit for purpose. It survived because of the generous amounts of money given by the Uk government to the Assembly which has provided reasonable local government settlements in the past few years. All of this is now coming to an end whoever wins in May.
If as PWC believe the Treasury’s assumptions for economic growth are too optimistic it could even be worse than the scenario outlined before Christmas in the pre budget report. Facing increasing demands on their services, very few reserves and council tax capped the 22 local authorities face some really tough decisions over the next 5 years. All the rhetoric regarding collaboration, smart procurement and public sector summits will not change the economic climate.
As one of my good friends in local government would put it ‘It’s time for some people to get real’. If the politicians don’t set out their priorities soon then the inevitable cuts will be made by the officers leaving councillors to face the music I’m afraid.
Rodney Berman 11:45 am on 10 March, 2010 Permalink
The reason the Shared Services project collapsed was because a certain council officer involved wanted to deliver one huge, exemplar project between all ten local authorities in South East Wales even though the finances didn’t stack up.
We should simply have never have tried to get one shared service up and running between nearly half the councils in Wales.
My alternative suggestion of developing two or three collaborative projects based on smaller clusters of local authorities working together within the South East Wales region was not pursued. Ultimately, this has turned out to be a huge mistake because had we followed that approach we might just have got something up and running.
In my view, however, there may be more to be gained by collaborative projects between different providers of public services in the same geographical area. For instance, Cardiff has established a shared occupational health service with the South Wales Fire & Rescue Service. We are also in discussion with the Cardiff & the Vale University Local Health Board about taking forward joint working projects with them.
The problem with trying to get savings out of services like HR and payroll is that we don’t spend that much on them in the first place in comparison to more public-facing services like schools or social services.
There is also lots going on elsewhere in the sphere of collaboration. The Welsh Purchasing Consortium now covers the majority of councils in Wales, for instance, enabling us to work together on getting maximum value for money from procurement. And there are a plethora of collaborative projects that are taking forward various waste solutions the length and breadth of Wales.
It is wrong to get hung up on one project – that was probably doomed to failure from the start – as indicating that collaboration isn’t happening.
And while I’m on the subject, I wonder if people know that early in the life of the Assembly they looked into the idea of Cardiff Council running their payroll for them as a shared service. In the end, however, WAG decided not to bother!